Beyond first-order asymptotics for Cox regression

To go beyond standard first-order asymptotics for Cox regression, we develop parametric bootstrap and second-order methods. In general, computation of $P$-values beyond first order requires more model specification than is required for the likelihood function. It is problematic to specify a censoring mechanism to be taken very seriously in detail, and it appears that conditioning on censoring is not a viable alternative to that. We circumvent this matter by employing a reference censoring model, matching the extent and timing of observed censoring. Our primary proposal is a parametric bootstrap method utilizing this reference censoring model to simulate inferential repetitions of the experiment. It is shown that the most important part of improvement on first-order methods - that pertaining to fitting nuisance parameters - is insensitive to the assumed censoring model. This is supported by numerical comparisons of our proposal to parametric bootstrap methods based on usual random censoring models, which are far more unattractive to implement. As an alternative to our primary proposal, we provide a second-order method requiring less computing effort while providing more insight into the nature of improvement on first-order methods. However, the parametric bootstrap method is more transparent, and hence is our primary proposal. Indications are that first-order partial likelihood methods are usually adequate in practice, so we are not advocating routine use of the proposed methods. It is however useful to see how best to check on first-order approximations, or improve on them, when this is expressly desired.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/13-BEJ572 in the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Temporal and Spatial Blood Feeding Patterns of Urban Mosquitoes In the San Juan Metropolitan Area, Puerto Rico

Urban ecosystems are a patchwork of habitats that host a broad diversity of animal species. Insects comprise a large portion of urban biodiversity which includes many pest species, including those that transmit pathogens. Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) inhabit urban environments and rely on sympatric vertebrate species to complete their life cycles, and in this process transmit pathogens to animals and humans. Given that mosquitoes feed upon vertebrates, they can also act as efficient samplers that facilitate detection of vertebrate species that utilize urban ecosystems. In this study, we analyzed DNA extracted from mosquito blood meals collected temporally in multiple neighborhoods of the San Juan Metropolitan Area, Puerto Rico to evaluate the presence of vertebrate fauna. DNA was collected from 604 individual mosquitoes that represented two common urban species, Culex quinquefasciatus (n = 586) and Aedes aegypti (n = 18). Culex quinquefasciatus fed on 17 avian taxa (81.2% of blood meals), seven mammalian taxa (17.9%), and one reptilian taxon (0.85%). Domestic chickens dominated these blood meals both temporally and spatially, and no statistically significant shift from birds to mammals was detected. Aedes aegypti blood meals were from a less diverse group, with two avian taxa (11.1%) and three mammalian taxa (88.9%) identified. The blood meals we identified provided a snapshot of the vertebrate community in the San Juan Metropolitan Area and have potential implications for vector-borne pathogen transmission

Mapping Regional Forest Evapotranspiration and Photosynthesis by Coupling Satellite Data with Ecosystem Simulation

Mapping Regional Forest Evapotranspiration and Photosynthesis by Coupling Satellite Data With Ecosystem Simulatio

Chemical data assimilation estimates of continental U.S. ozone and nitrogen budgets during the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-North America

Global ozone analyses, based on assimilation of stratospheric profile and ozone column measurements, and NOy predictions from the Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS) are used to estimate the ozone and NOy budget over the continental United States during the July-August 2004 Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-North America (INTEX-A). Comparison with aircraft, satellite, surface, and ozonesonde measurements collected during INTEX-A show that RAQMS captures the main features of the global and continental U.S. distribution of tropospheric ozone, carbon monoxide, and NOy with reasonable fidelity. Assimilation of stratospheric profile and column ozone measurements is shown to have a positive impact on the RAQMS upper tropospheric/lower stratosphere ozone analyses, particularly during the period when SAGE III limb scattering measurements were available. Eulerian ozone and NOy budgets during INTEX-A show that the majority of the continental U.S. export occurs in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere poleward of the tropopause break, a consequence of convergence of tropospheric and stratospheric air in this region. Continental U.S. photochemically produced ozone was found to be a minor component of the total ozone export, which was dominated by stratospheric ozone during INTEX-A. The unusually low photochemical ozone export is attributed to anomalously cold surface temperatures during the latter half of the INTEX-A mission, which resulted in net ozone loss during the first 2 weeks of August. Eulerian NOy budgets are shown to be very consistent with previously published estimates. The NOy export efficiency was estimated to be 24%, with NOx + PAN accounting for 54% of the total NOy export during INTEX-A. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union

AND/R: Advanced neutron diffractometer/reflectometer for investigation of thin films and multilayers for the life sciences

An elastic neutron scattering instrument, the advanced neutron diffractometer/reflectometer (AND/R), has recently been commissioned at the National Institute of Standards and Technology Center for Neutron Research. The AND/R is the centerpiece of the Cold Neutrons for Biology and Technology partnership, which is dedicated to the structural characterization of thin films and multilayers of biological interest. The instrument is capable of measuring both specular and nonspecular reflectivity, as well as crystalline or semicrystalline diffraction at wave-vector transfers up to approximately 2.20 Å(-1). A detailed description of this flexible instrument and its performance characteristics in various operating modes are given.D. J. M. is supported through a NSF NIRT grant Contract No. 0304062

Tensile Fracture of Welded Polymer Interfaces: Miscibility, Entanglements and Crazing

Large-scale molecular simulations are performed to investigate tensile failure of polymer interfaces as a function of welding time $t$. Changes in the tensile stress, mode of failure and interfacial fracture energy $G_I$ are correlated to changes in the interfacial entanglements as determined from Primitive Path Analysis. Bulk polymers fail through craze formation, followed by craze breakdown through chain scission. At small $t$ welded interfaces are not strong enough to support craze formation and fail at small strains through chain pullout at the interface. Once chains have formed an average of about one entanglement across the interface, a stable craze is formed throughout the sample. The failure stress of the craze rises with welding time and the mode of craze breakdown changes from chain pullout to chain scission as the interface approaches bulk strength. The interfacial fracture energy $G_I$ is calculated by coupling the simulation results to a continuum fracture mechanics model. As in experiment, $G_I$ increases as $t^{1/2}$ before saturating at the average bulk fracture energy $G_b$. As in previous simulations of shear strength, saturation coincides with the recovery of the bulk entanglement density. Before saturation, $G_I$ is proportional to the areal density of interfacial entanglements. Immiscibiltiy limits interdiffusion and thus suppresses entanglements at the interface. Even small degrees of immisciblity reduce interfacial entanglements enough that failure occurs by chain pullout and $G_I \ll G_b$

Multi-element soil analysis: an assessment of its potential as an aid to archaeological interpretation

Multi-element soil analysis is now an established technique in archaeology. It has been used to locate archaeological sites and define the extent of human activity beyond the structural remains, and to aid interpretation of space use in and around archaeological remains. This study aimed to evaluate the consistency of these soil element signatures between sites and hence their potential usefulness in archaeological studies. Known contexts on abandoned farms across the UK were sampled to test the relationships between element concentrations and known functional area and to assess inter-site variability. The results clearly show that there are significant differences in the soil chemistry of contrasting functional areas, particularly for Ba, Ca, P, Zn, Cu, Sr and Pb. Despite significant site specific effects, which appear to reflect individual anthropogenic practices rather than geological influences, there is sufficient similarity in the pattern of element enhancement to allow reliable interpretation of former function using discriminant models. Relating these enhancements to precise soil inputs, however, is more problematic because many important soil inputs do not contain distinct element fingerprints and because there is mixing of materials within the soil. There is also a suggestion that charcoal and bone play an important role in both the loading and post-depositional retention of Ca, Sr, P, Zn, and Cu and thus may be significant in the formation of soil element concentration patterns

Who Will Volunteer? Religiosity, Everyday Racism, and Social Participation Among African American Men

This study explores the relative importance of everyday racism, empathic concern, communalism, and religiosity as predictors of pro-social involvement (i.e., volunteerism and membership in political/social justice organizations) among a sample of African American men ( N = 151). Church involvement emerged as a positive predictor of the likelihood that these men were involved in volunteer work as well as the number of hours that men dedicated to volunteer work. Communalism positively predicted the amount of time (in hours per year) that men were involved in volunteer work. Subjective religiosity and the stress of everyday racism were associated with a greater likelihood of being a member of a political–social justice organization. Implications of these findings are discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/44632/1/10804_2004_Article_496119.pd